Nyaya iyi inoona.
Nguva: 2021-8-1-2021-8-31
Keywords: zvirambidzo zvekugadzira kudzikisa dziva rezvidzoredzo zvemidziyo
Ichi chinyorwa chinyorwa.
● Kuongororwa kwemusika: mitengo yakakwira zvakanyanya nekuda kwekusimudzira kwakanaka kubva pazvirambidzo zvekugadzira.
● Supply analysis: Supply inoramba ichibvumirana, uye inventory inoshanduka kubva pakukwira kusvika pakudonha.
● Demand analysis: high tembiricha uye kunaya kwemvura, kudiwa kwekuita hakuna simba.
● Kuongorora kwemitengo: iyo mbishi yakadonha chikamu, tsigiro yemutengo yakaderera.
Macro ongororo: yakagadzikana kukura mutemo inoramba isina kuchinjika uye indasitiri iri kukura zvine hurombo.
Maonero akazara: Muna Chikunguru, yakasimudzwa nenhau yekuvandudza uye kurambidzwa kwekugadzirwa kwenhau, mitengo yesimbi yekuvaka mudzimba yakaunza maitiro ekudzoka. Munguva iyi, macro-good news dzakabuda kakawanda, kushandiswa kwakazara kwekudzikisa; kufungidzira manzwiro akapisa zvakare, musika weramangwana wakasimuka zvakasimba; pasi pekutarisira kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa, zvigayo zvesimbi zvinowanzokwevera mutengo wekare wefekitari. Mitengo yesimbi yakakwira mumwaka wekunze, yakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, zvakanyanya nekuda kwegwaro rekuderedza kugadzirwa kwesimbi munzvimbo dzakawanda imwe neimwe, mamwe mabhizinesi esimbi akatanga kudzikisa kugadzirwa, achipa kumanikidzwa kudzikamisa mushure memusika mukuru wave. Zvisinei, pamwe chete nemitengo inoramba ichikwira, kuoma kudiwa kwekuita kwekuita kusina simba, mukupisa kwepamusoro uye kunaya kwemamiriro okunze, kuvakwa kwemapurojekiti einjiniya kunovhiringidzwa, kuguma kwekutengesa kwakadonha zvakanyanya kuenzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura. Kutengesera uye kudiwa kunowedzera kupera simba mumativi ese, uye mutongo wedu mwedzi wapfuura wakangofanana, asi chibvumirano chekupa chakawedzerwa zvakanyanya nemusika mukuru, zvichiwedzera kunetsana mumusika wenzvimbo. Kakawanda, muna July, kukwira kwaitarisirwa, uye basa remari yemari yakaratidzwa zvakajeka. Mushure mekupinda muna Nyamavhuvhu, maitiro ekupa nzira mbiri uye kudiwa kwechibvumirano kuchachinja: padivi rekupa, nekuda kwebasa rakasimba rekumanikidza kugadzirwa, dzimwe nzvimbo dzicharamba dzichiwedzera chiyero chezvirambidzo zvekugadzira, kugadzirwa kwakaoma kudzorera; kudivi rekudiwa, nekuzorodzwa kwemamiriro ekunze akanyanya, kunonoka kudiwa kunotarisirwa kupora. Naizvozvo, isu tinofanotaura kuti muna Nyamavhuvhu yekuvaka simbi yekuvaka simbi uye kudiwa chimiro ichave yakagadziridzwa, mitengo yesimbi uye inertia kumusoro nzvimbo. Nekudaro, nekuwedzera kwezvirambidzo zvekugadzira, iyo ichangoburwa iron ore, zvisaririra uye mimwe mitengo yakaderera kusvika kumwero wakati, simbi inodhura nzvimbo yegiravhiti inotarisirwa kudzika pasi, kuwedzera kwepurofiti mushure mesimba rezvirambidzo zvekugadzira kana. kupera simba (simbi yechoto yemagetsi haisi mumitemo yekugadzirwa kwehutungamiri). Uye zvakare, zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvesimbi kunze kwenyika mutero wekudzoreredza mutemo kugadzirisa kuchaderedza huwandu hwesimbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muChina, kuwedzera kweiyo real estate regulation, ichakanganisa nhanho yekudzika kwekuda kuburitswa. -Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo wepamusoro wepamusoro rebar muShanghai munaAugust (yakabva pa Xiben index) ichave iri muhuwandu hwe5,500-5,800 yuan / ton.
Ongorora: Mitengo yesimbi yakakwira zvakanyanya muna Chikunguru
I. Ongororo yemusika
Muna Chikunguru 2021, mitengo yesimbi yekuvaka mudzimba yakakwira zvakanyanya, kubva munaChikunguru 30, iyo Westborne Steel Index yakavhara pa5570, kusvika 480 kubva pakupera kwemwedzi wapfuura.
Ongororo yaChikunguru, kunyangwe iyo yechinyakare kudiwa off-mwaka, asi mudzimba kuvakwa simbi musika counter-maitiro akakwirira, chikonzero, kunyanya nokuti bumbiro divi kuramba vakasununguka, musika inotarisirwa kuva akanaka. Kunyanya, muhafu yekutanga yegore, mukuburitswa kwezvirambidzo zvekugadzira uye fungidziro yemusika yakasimudzwa nemafungiro, iyo yose yekuvakwa kwemba yekuvakwa kwesimbi mitengo yakakwira; pakati, zvigayo zvesimbi zvinowanzosimudzira mutengo wekare wefekitari, musika wakatenderedza kuumbwa kwekubatanidza, mutengo unowedzera kuwedzera; kunonoka, mukupisa kwakanyanya kwakapoteredza mvura uye dzimwe nzvimbo pasi pesimba remhepo ine dutu remhepo, kuvakwa kweprojekti kunovharwa, kusunungurwa kwekuda kwekupedzisira hakuna kukwana, kuwedzera kwemutengo kwakaderera. Pakazere, nekuti chikamu chekugovera che shrinkage chinotarisirwa kuramba chichisimba, musika mukuru une kusimudzira kwakakosha kumutengo wenzvimbo, izvo zvakazoita kuti mitengo yesimbi yekuvaka mudzimba muna Chikunguru ipfuure zvinotarisirwa kumusoro.
Mitengo yesimbi yekuvaka mudzimba muna Chikunguru mushure mekusimudza kwakakosha, Nyamavhuvhu musika kana maitiro achienderera mberi? Ndedzipi shanduko dzichaitika kune zvakakosha zveindasitiri? Nemibvunzo yakawanda, pamwe chete neiyo Nyamavhuvhu yekuvaka yekuvaka simbi yemusika mushumo wekuongorora.
Ⅱ, kuongororwa kwekupa
1, mudzimba kuvaka simbi inventory kuongorora mamiriro ezvinhu
Kubva munaChikunguru 30, huwandu hwakazara hwemhando dzesimbi dzepamba dzaive 15,481,400 matani, kusvika 794,000 matani kana 5.4% kubva mukupera kwaChikumi, uye pasi 247,500 matani kana 1.6% kubva panguva imwecheteyo gore rapfuura. Pakati pazvo, nhamba yeshinda, tambo yewaya, inopisa yakakungurutswa, inotonhora yakakungurutswa uye yepakati ndiro yaive matani 8,355,700, 1,651,100 matani, 2,996,800 matani, 1,119,800 matani uye 1,286,000 matani maererano. Pamusoro pekudzikira kudiki mumatanda anotonhora-akakungurutswa, zvinyorwa zvemamwe mashanu makuru emhando dzesimbi dzepamba akakwira kusvika pamwero, asi kwete zvakanyanya.
Maererano neongororo yedata, muna Chikunguru, iyo yemba yesimbi musika musika inopa uye inoda kaviri pasi. Demand side: yakakanganiswa ne-off-season zvinhu, terminal yekuda kuita inononoka, kutenderedza huwandu hwekutengesa hwakadonha zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa naJune, asi musika wekufungidzira kudiwa kwakanaka. Supply side: Mushure memutemo wekudzvanyirira kugadzirwa kwesimbi mune mamwe mapurovhinzi nemaguta, kuchekwa kwemagetsi kunotarisirwa kuve kwakasimba. Tichifunga kuti zvirambidzo zvekugadzira zvicharamba zvichiwedzerwa mushure mekupinda Nyamavhuvhu, ukuwo kuita kwekuda kunotarisirwa kuvandudzwa, pasi peiyo hesiti inotarisirwa kugaya.
2, mudzimba simbi kupa mamiriro ezvinhu kuongorora
Zvinoenderana neazvino data kubva kuChina Steel Association, pakati paChikunguru 2021, akakosha manhamba emabhizinesi esimbi akaburitsa huwandu hwe21,936,900 matani esimbi isina kuchena, 19,089,000 matani esimbi yenguruve, 212,681,000 matani esimbi. Avhareji yekugadzirwa kwemazuva ose mumakore gumi aya, simbi isina kuchena 2,193,700 matani, kuwedzera kwe2.62% ringgit uye 2.59% gore negore; nguruve iron 1,908,900 tani, kuwedzera kwe2.63% ringgit uye kuderera kwe0.01% gore negore; simbi 2,126,800 matani, kuwedzera kwe8.35% ringgit uye 4.29% gore negore.
3, yemukati simbi kupinza uye ekisipoti mamiriro ekuongorora
Maererano neGeneral Administration yeCustoms data inoratidza kuti muna June 2021, China yakatumira kunze mamiriyoni 6.458 matani esimbi, kuwedzera kwemamiriyoni 1.1870 matani, kana 22.52%; gore negore kukura kwe74.5%; Ndira-Chikumi China yose inotengeswa kunze kwesimbi 37.382 miriyoni matani, kuwedzera kwe30.2%. June China inotengeswa kunze kwesimbi 1.252 mamiriyoni matani, pasi 33.4%; Ndira-Chikumi China yakatengwa kunze kwenyika kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chikumi, China yakaunza huwandu hwe7.349 miriyoni matani esimbi, yakakwira 0.1% gore negore.
4, inotarisirwa kuwanikwa kwesimbi yekuvaka mwedzi unouya
Muna Chikunguru, pasi pesimba repasirese rekudzora kugadzirwa kwegwaro, nzvimbo zhinji dzakapihwa kudzikisa basa, kumwe kudzvinyirira kwedunhu kwakadonha zvakanyanya. Zvisinei, nemitengo yesimbi yakakwira zvakanyanya, purofiti yesimbi yakagadziridzwa, kukurumidza kwekupa kuderera kwakatenderedza kusawirirana. Tichifunga kuti mushure mekupinda Nyamavhuvhu, zvirambidzo zvekugadzira zvekutonga zvichawedzera kuwedzera, asi kuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwemusika kunenge kwave kudzikira, isu tinotarisira kuti kuwanikwa kwemidziyo yekuvaka muna Nyamavhuvhu hakuzodzikire zvakanyanya.
Ⅲ, mamiriro ekudiwa
1, Shanghai kuvaka simbi yekutengesa maitiro ekuongorora
Muna Chikunguru, zvinodiwa zvemumba zvakadonha kubva mugore rapfuura. Pakati pemwedzi, pasi pesimba rekushisa kwepamusoro kwemamiriro okunze, kusunungurwa kwekuda kwekupedzisira kwakanga kusina simba; muhafu yechipiri yegore, East China yakatambura nemhepo ine dutu, mamwe matura akavharwa, uye kutengeserana kwemusika kwakakanganiswa. Pakazara, iyo off-season mhedzisiro yakakosha kwazvo, kutendeuka kwakadonha zvakanyanya kubva mhete. Zvisinei, mushure mokupinda muna August, rutivi rwekuda runotarisirwa kutora zvishoma: kune rumwe rutivi, rutivi rwemari rwakanyanya nyore, uye kudiwa kwakasara munguva yapfuura kunotarisirwa kusunungurwa; kune rumwe rutivi, kupisa kwepamusoro kwemamiriro ekunze kunoderedza, uye kushandiswa kwepasi kunotarisirwa kukura. Naizvozvo, musika une zvimwe zvinotarisirwa kudiwa muna Nyamavhuvhu.
IV. Kuongorora kwemari
1, mbishi mari yekuongorora
Muna Chikunguru, mitengo yezvigadzirwa yakadonha muchikamu. Zvinoenderana nedata rakatariswa neXiben New Trunk Line, kubva muna Chikunguru 30, mutengo wekare-mufekitari weiyo common carbon billet munzvimbo yeTangshan yaive 5270 yuan/ton, yakakwira 360 yuan/ton kana ichienzaniswa nemutengo pakupera kwemwedzi wapfuura; mutengo wezvimedu munzvimbo yeJiangsu waive 3720 yuan/ton, wakakwira 80 yuan/ton zvichienzaniswa nekupera kwemwedzi wapera; mutengo wecoke yechipiri munharaunda yeShanxi waiva 2440 yuan/ton, pasi pe120 yuan/ton kana ichienzaniswa nemutengo pakupera kwemwedzi wapera; mutengo we65-66 kuravira kwesimbi munzvimbo yeTangshan yaive 1600 yuan/ton. Dry-based iron ore concentrate price in Tangshan area was RMB1,600/ton, up RMB50/ton kana ichienzaniswa nekupera kwemwedzi wapera; Platts 62% iron ore index yaive USD195/ton, yakaderera USD23.4/ton kana ichienzaniswa nekupera kwemwedzi wapfuura.
Mwedzi uno, kuderera kwesimbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuri pachena, simbi mill profit margins yakagadziriswa.
2, mutengo wesimbi yekuvaka mwedzi unouya unotarisirwa
Yakazara ikozvino yekugovera uye kudiwa mamiriro, isu tinotarisira: iron ore icharamba ichidonha gare gare; coke kupa kwakasimba, mutengo wakasimudzwa zvishoma; scrap simbi inodiwa nezvirambidzo zvekugadzira, zvirambidzo zvemagetsi, mitengo kana kudzoreredza kwakakwira. Maonero akazara, mutengo wesimbi yekuvaka unotarisirwa kudzikira zvishoma muna Nyamavhuvhu.
V. Macro ruzivo
1, iyo yepakati uye yemunharaunda yakawanda-strategy "14 shanu" maindasitiri kabhoni kuderedza nzira yakajeka
Mukati meiyo kabhoni peak, kabhoni kusarerekera, kubva kuhushumiri kuenda kunharaunda iri kusimudzira indasitiri yegirinhi yakaderera-kabhoni shanduko. Mutori wenhau akadzidza kuti "14th Five-Year Plan" yekuvandudza girini kwemaindasitiri uye "14th Five-Year Plan" yekuvandudza indasitiri yezvigadzirwa zvichaburitswa munguva pfupi iri kutevera, ukuwo madhipatimendi akakodzera achagadzira hurongwa hwekushandisa kabhoni kune vasiri ferrous. simbi, zvivakwa zvekuvaka, simbi uye mamwe maindasitiri akakosha, uye kujekesa kuderedzwa kweindasitiri kabhoni Nzira yekushandiswa ichajekeswa, uye kuvandudzwa kwemaindasitiri matsva ehunyanzvi uye maindasitiri epamusoro achave. kukurumidza, uye chikamu chekushandiswa kwesimba kwakachena kuchawedzerwa. Nharaunda dzinoiswawo nesimba kurima nekukura maindasitiri egirinhi, kukurumidza kushandisa tekinoroji yeruzivo rwechizvarwa chitsva mukugadzira girinhi, uye kugadzira akati wandei emapaki egirinhi nemafekitori egirinhi, nezvimwewo, kuitira kuti ikurumidze kukwira girinhi uye yakaderera-kabhoni. -mhando yekusimudzira indasitiri.
2, China yakasimudza mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika zvigadzirwa zvesimbi, kubviswa kwemutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika kune yakakwira kukosha-yakawedzerwa zvigadzirwa.
The State Council Tariff Commission yakazivisa kuti, kuitira kusimudzira shanduko uye kusimudzira indasitiri yesimbi uye kusimudzira kwemhando yepamusoro, State Council Tariff Commission yakasarudza kuwedzera zvakakodzera mitero yekutengesa kunze kweferrochrome uye yakakwirira-kuchena yenguruve iron kubva muna Nyamavhuvhu 1, 2021, mushure mekugadzirisa mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika we40% uye 20%, zvichiteerana. Pamusoro pezvo, maererano nechiziviso chakabudiswa pamwe chete neBazi reMari uye State Administration of Taxation, kubva Nyamavhuvhu 1, 2021, China ichabvisawo mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika pamhando makumi maviri nenhatu dzezvigadzirwa zvesimbi zvakaita sesimbi njanji. Uku ndiko kugadziridzwa kwechipiri kwemitengo yesimbi yeChina kubvira gore rino, kugadziridzwa kwekutanga kwemitero muna Chivabvu, kuchengetedza mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika unovhara makumi maviri nematatu emutero makodhi emhando yepamusoro-yakawedzerwa zvigadzirwa, panguva ino zvese zvakadzimwa.
3, Ndira-Chikumi mabhizinesi emunyika maindasitiri pamusoro pehukuru hwepurofiti akasimuka 66.9% gore-pa-gore
Kubva muna Ndira kusvika Chikumi, mumaindasitiri makuru makumi mana nemapfumbamwe, maindasitiri makumi matatu nemapfumbamwe akawedzera purofiti yavo gore-negore, 1 indasitiri yakashandura kurasikirwa kuita purofiti, uye 1 indasitiri yakaramba yakati sandara. Iyo huru indasitiri pundutso ndeiyi: isiri-ferrous simbi yekunyungudutsa uye rolling processing indasitiri purofiti yakawedzera ne2.73 nguva, indasitiri yekuchera mafuta negasi yakawedzera ne2.49 nguva, ferrous simbi yekunyunguduka uye rolling processing indasitiri yakawedzera ne2.34 nguva, makemikari mbishi zvinhu uye indasitiri yekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvemakemikari yakawedzera ne1.77 nguva, marasha emigodhi uye yekuwachisa indasitiri yakawedzera ne1.14 nguva, indasitiri yekugadzira mota yakawedzera. ne 45.2%, komputa, kutaurirana uye Mamwe maindasitiri ekugadzira zvigadzirwa zvemagetsi akakura ne45.2%, indasitiri yemagetsi nemichina yekugadzira michina yakakura ne36.1%, indasitiri yekugadzira zvigadzirwa yakakura ne34.5%, indasitiri yekugadzira michina yakakosha yakakura ne31.0%, isiri-simbi. indasitiri yezvigadzirwa zvemamineral yakakura ne26.7%, magetsi, kugadzirwa kwekupisa uye indasitiri yekugovera yakakura ne9.5%.
Ⅵ, musika wepasi rose
Muna Chikumi 2021, kugadzirwa kwepasirese simbi yepasirese yenyika makumi matanhatu neina inosanganisirwa muWorld Steel Association manhamba yaive 167.9 miriyoni matani, kuwedzera kwe11.6%.
Kunyanya, kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kuchena kweChina kwaive 93.9 miriyoni matani, kusvika 1.5% gore negore; Kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kuchena kweIndia kwaive 9.4 miriyoni matani, kusvika 21.4% gore negore; Kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kuchena kweJapan kwaive 8.1 miriyoni matani, kusvika 44.4% gore negore; iyo US crude steel production yaive 7.1 miriyoni matani, kumusoro 44.4% gore-pa-gore; Inofungidzirwa kugadzirwa kwesimbi yeRussia 6.4 mamiriyoni, kusvika 11,4% gore negore; Kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kuchena kweSouth Korea kwaiva matani mamiriyoni matanhatu, kuwedzera kwe17.35%; Germany crude steel production yematani mamiriyoni 3.4, kuwedzera kwe38,2%; Turkey crude simbi kugadzirwa kwematani mamiriyoni 3.4, kuwedzera 17,9%; Brazil crude simbi kugadzirwa kwematani mamiriyoni 3.1, kuwedzera 45.2%; Iran crude simbi inofungidzirwa kugadzirwa kwematani 2.5 miriyoni, kuwedzera kwe1.9%.
VII. Maonero akazara
Muna Chikunguru, yakasimudzwa nekugadziriswa kwenyika, nhau dzezvirambidzo zvekugadzira, mitengo yesimbi yekuvaka yakaunza mune rebound maitiro. Munguva yenguva, macro-zvakanaka nhau kazhinji, iyo yakazara yekuitwa yekudzikisa; kufungidzira manzwiro zvakare, misika yeramangwana yakasimuka zvakasimba; mukuderedzwa kwekugadzirwa kunotarisirwa, zvigayo zvesimbi zvinowanzokwevera mutengo wekare wefekitari. Mitengo yesimbi yakakwira mumwaka wekunze, yakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, zvakanyanya nekuda kwegwaro rekuderedza kugadzirwa kwesimbi munzvimbo dzakawanda imwe neimwe, mamwe mabhizinesi esimbi akatanga kudzikisa kugadzirwa, achipa kumanikidzwa kudzikamisa mushure memusika mukuru wave. Zvisinei, pamwe chete nemitengo inoramba ichikwira, kushanda kwakasimba kwekuda kwekuita kwakazara kusina simba, mukupisa kwakanyanya uye kunaya kwemamiriro okunze, kuvakwa kwemapurojekiti einjiniya kunokanganiswa, iyo terminal volume yekutengeserana yakadonha zvakanyanya kana ichienzaniswa nemwedzi wapfuura. Kutengesera uye kudiwa kunowedzera kupera simba mumativi ese, uye mutongo wedu mwedzi wapfuura wakangofanana, asi chibvumirano chekupa chakawedzerwa zvakanyanya nemusika mukuru, zvichiwedzera kunetsana mumusika wenzvimbo. Kakawanda, muna July, kukwira kwaitarisirwa, uye basa remari yemari yakaratidzwa zvakajeka. Mushure mekupinda muna Nyamavhuvhu, maitiro ekupa nzira mbiri uye kudiwa kwechibvumirano kuchachinja: padivi rekupa, nekuda kwebasa rakasimba rekumanikidza kugadzirwa, dzimwe nzvimbo dzicharamba dzichiwedzera chiyero chezvirambidzo zvekugadzira, kugadzirwa kwakaoma kudzorera; kudivi rekudiwa, nekuzorodzwa kwemamiriro ekunze akanyanya, kunonoka kudiwa kunotarisirwa kupora. Naizvozvo, isu tinofanotaura kuti muna Nyamavhuvhu yekuvaka simbi yekuvaka simbi uye kudiwa chimiro ichave yakagadziridzwa, mitengo yesimbi uye inertia kumusoro nzvimbo. Nekudaro, nekuwedzera kwezvirambidzo zvekugadzira, iyo ichangoburwa iron ore, zvisaririra uye mimwe mitengo yakaderera kusvika kumwero wakati, simbi inodhura nzvimbo yegiravhiti inotarisirwa kudzika pasi, kuwedzera kwepurofiti mushure mesimba rezvirambidzo zvekugadzira kana. kupera simba (simbi yechoto yemagetsi haisi mumitemo yekugadzirwa kwehutungamiri). Uye zvakare, zvimwe zvigadzirwa zvesimbi kunze kwenyika mutero wekudzoreredza mutemo kugadzirisa kuchaderedza huwandu hwesimbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika muChina, kuwedzera kweiyo real estate regulation, ichakanganisa nhanho yekudzika kwekuda kuburitswa.
Zvinotarisirwa kuti mutengo wemhando yepamusoro rebar muShanghai muna Nyamavhuvhu uchange uri pakati pe5,500-5,800 yuan/ton.
Nguva yekutumira: Aug-01-2021